Goldman Sachs: Could AI Displace Up to 9% of Workers? Learn Displace, Recession and Productivity

News date: October 22, 2026 | English level: B1–B2 | Topics: AI, the job market, workplace English

"Will AI take my job?" It is probably one of the most talked-about, and most worrying, topics among office workers over the past two years. On October 22, 2026, the US investment bank Goldman Sachs published research that put a number on it: during the AI transition, up to 9% of workers could be displaced, roughly one in every 11.

However, the research also suggests that a wave of layoffs may not come right away. Instead, it is more likely to speed up during the next slowdown or recession. This article uses an original English passage based on the news to help you understand the story and learn the most common English words for talking about AI and jobs, such as how to use displace, recession, productivity and layoff.

Whether you work in an office, are preparing for a working holiday abroad or are thinking about changing careers, understanding news like this can help you look at AI's impact on the workplace more calmly. It also gives you keywords you can use in English job interviews or when chatting with international colleagues.

Here are the key points in one minute. All figures below are based on reports by Fortune and Investing.com; we have not seen Goldman Sachs' original research note.

1. Up to 9% of workers could be displaced

Goldman Sachs economist Joseph Briggs estimated that up to 9% of workers, about one in 11, could be displaced during the AI transition. The figure is based on a forecast that AI will eventually lift productivity by 15% in the US and other developed economies. The note also said that slower hiring could reduce employment by another 3%; the reports did not add the two figures together.

2. No sudden wave of layoffs

Looking back at past technology changes, Goldman Sachs found that job losses linked to automation tend to stay limited when the economy is healthy, but speed up during cyclical slowdowns. That is why Fortune's headline says the layoffs are likely "waiting for a recession".

3. The occupations hit hardest in the past

The research looked at 25 occupations affected by past technology, including photo processors, movie projectionists, proofreaders, file clerks and bank tellers. On average, employment in these occupations fell by about 25% in the five years after it started to decline. Briggs sees these historical figures as likely upper bounds for AI's impact.

4. The rise in unemployment faded after about two years

Historical data show that the rise in unemployment caused by new technology has usually faded after about two years. Briggs also said that even if 9% of workers are displaced, the rise in the unemployment rate should stay below one percentage point in any single year. Note that "faded after about two years" refers to the unemployment rate; it does not mean the 9% of jobs will come back.

5. Not the first time 9% has come up

According to Fortune, Briggs estimated in August 2025 that about 6–7% of the US workforce would be affected, and in a Goldman Sachs podcast in June 2026 he mentioned about 9%, equal to roughly 15 million workers needing to change jobs over a decade. What is different this time is the wording: earlier he said workers would be "reallocated" to new roles; this time he says they could be "displaced".

Start with the audio player at the top of the article and listen once without reading. Try to catch three key points: What share of workers could be displaced? When are layoffs more likely to speed up? About how long did the unemployment caused by past technology take to fade? Then read the English passage below carefully, and finally compare it with the plain-English summary in the next section.

English Level: Intermediate (B1–B2) | Topic: AI, Jobs and the Economy

AI Could Displace One in 11 Workers, Goldman Sachs Says

Artificial intelligence may change the job market more slowly than many people fear, but the change could still be large. In a research note published on Thursday, October 22, 2026, Goldman Sachs economist Joseph Briggs estimated that up to 9% of workers could be displaced during the AI transition. That is roughly one in every 11 workers.

The estimate is based on a forecast that AI will eventually lift productivity by 15% in the US and other developed economies. The note also suggested that slower hiring could reduce employment by another 3%.

However, the bank does not expect a sudden wave of layoffs. Looking at past technology changes, the economists found that job losses tend to stay limited when the economy is healthy. They usually speed up during a slowdown, when companies are under pressure to cut costs. In other words, many AI-related layoffs may be waiting for the next recession.

Earlier waves of technology hit jobs with routine tasks the hardest. In 25 occupations affected by past technology, including file clerks, proofreaders and bank tellers, employment fell by about 25% in the five years after it started to decline. Still, Briggs described the displacement as temporary. In the past, the rise in unemployment linked to new technology has faded after about two years. Even if 9% of workers are displaced, he expects the unemployment rate to rise by less than one percentage point in any single year.

The English text above is an original learning passage written using information from Fortune and Investing.com reports; it is not a word-for-word copy of either news report.

AI may not change jobs as fast as many people fear, but the change could still be big. On Thursday, October 22, 2026, Goldman Sachs economist Joseph Briggs said in a research note that up to 9% of workers could be pushed out of their jobs while the world moves to AI. That is about one worker in every 11.

This number comes from a forecast that AI will one day raise productivity by 15% in the US and other developed (rich) economies. The note also said that slower hiring could cut the number of people in work by another 3%.

But the bank does not think a lot of people will lose their jobs all at once. When new technology arrived in the past, job losses stayed small while the economy was doing well. They grew faster when the economy slowed down and companies needed to save money. So many AI-related layoffs may not happen until the next recession.

In earlier waves of new technology, jobs full of repeated, everyday tasks were hit the hardest. In 25 occupations affected by past technology, such as file clerks, proofreaders and bank tellers, the number of workers fell by about 25% in the five years after it began to drop. Still, Briggs thinks this effect is temporary. In the past, the extra unemployment caused by new technology went away after about two years. Even if 9% of workers lose their jobs this way, he expects the unemployment rate to go up by less than one percentage point in any one year.

After the passage, here are 10 key words and one bonus phrase. You will see them not only in news about AI and jobs, but also in TOEIC reading, English job interviews and everyday workplace communication.

1. displace (v.): to force people out of their jobs or usual place

Pronunciation: /dɪsˈpleɪs/

The basic meaning of displace is "to force something out of its usual place". In news about work, it usually means workers lose their jobs because of technology, policy or changes in an industry. It often appears in the passive: be displaced.

In the news: up to 9% of workers could be displaced during the AI transition

Example: Many cashiers were displaced when supermarkets added self-checkout machines.

Common collocations:

• displaced workers: workers who have lost their jobs this way
• job displacement: the loss of jobs to new technology or other changes
• be displaced by automation: lose your job to machines or software

How is displace different from replace? Replace focuses on swapping A for B, as in AI may replace some tasks. Displace focuses on people being forced out of their position, as in displaced workers (people who lost their jobs as a result). Simply put, replace is about the thing being swapped, while displaced is about the people affected.

2. productivity (n.): how much is produced for the time or effort put in

Pronunciation: /ˌprɑːdʌkˈtɪvəti/

Productivity is how much you produce in a given time or with a given amount of effort. It is a high-frequency word in economic news and workplace reports.

In the news: AI will eventually lift productivity by 15%

Example: Using AI tools to write meeting notes has really improved our team’s productivity.

Common collocations:

• raise / lift / boost productivity: increase output
• productivity growth: a rise in productivity over time
• productivity tools: apps and software that help you get more done

3. estimate (v. / n.): to make a careful guess about a number; a careful guess

Pronunciation: verb /ˈestɪmeɪt/, noun /ˈestɪmət/

As a verb, estimate means "to make a careful guess about a number"; as a noun, it means "the number you guess". Note that the ending is pronounced differently for each part of speech.

In the news: Briggs estimated that up to 9% of workers could be displaced

Example: The agent estimated that the visa paperwork would take about two weeks.

Common collocations:

• a rough estimate: a quick guess that is not exact
• according to estimates: based on what people have calculated
• be estimated at + number: be thought to be about a certain number

4. layoff (n.): the loss of a job when a company cuts staff

Pronunciation: /ˈleɪɔːf/

Layoff is the most common American English word for job cuts, and the verb phrase is lay off. British English often uses redundancy (be made redundant).

In the news: the bank does not expect a sudden wave of layoffs

Example: After hearing rumors about layoffs, Kevin started updating his English résumé.

Common collocations:

• a wave of layoffs: many job cuts in a short period
• mass layoffs: job cuts on a large scale
• be laid off: lose your job when a company cuts staff
• AI-related layoffs: job cuts linked to AI

5. recession (n.): a period when the economy shrinks

Pronunciation: /rɪˈseʃən/

A recession is a period when economic activity clearly falls. A common technical definition is two quarters in a row of negative GDP growth.

In the news: many AI-related layoffs may be waiting for the next recession

Example: During a recession, many companies freeze hiring and cut their training budgets.

Common collocations:

• fall / slip into a recession: enter a recession
• a deep / mild recession: a serious / less serious recession
• recession fears: worries that a recession is coming

6. slowdown (n.): a period when (economic) growth gets slower

Pronunciation: /ˈsloʊdaʊn/

Slowdown is the noun form of slow down and means that growth is getting slower. The economy is still growing, just more slowly, so a slowdown is less serious than a recession.

In the news: They usually speed up during a slowdown

Example: The export slowdown has made many factory workers in central Taiwan worried about their jobs.

Common collocations:

• an economic slowdown: slower growth across the economy
• a cyclical slowdown: a slowdown that is part of the normal business cycle
• a slowdown in hiring: companies hiring fewer people than before

7. routine (adj. / n.): regular and repeated; a usual set of tasks

Pronunciation: /ruːˈtiːn/

As an adjective, routine means "regular and repeated"; as a noun, it means "a usual set of tasks" or "a fixed process". In discussions about AI and automation, routine tasks is a key term.

In the news: jobs with routine tasks

Example: Entering data into spreadsheets is the most routine part of my job, so I’d love to automate it.

Common collocations:

• routine tasks / work: repeated, predictable work
• a daily routine: the things you do every day
• a routine check: a regular, planned check

8. temporary (adj.): lasting only for a limited time

Pronunciation: /ˈtempəreri/

The opposite of temporary is permanent. At work you will also see a temporary position (a job for a limited time) and a temp (a worker hired for a short period).

In the news: Briggs described the displacement as temporary

Example: A working holiday visa is only temporary, so plan your time in Australia carefully.

Common collocations:

• a temporary job / contract: a job or contract for a limited time
• temporary measures: steps taken for a short period
• on a temporary basis: for a limited time only

9. be under pressure to + V (phr.): to be pushed or expected to do something

Pressure means stress or force from other people or from circumstances. Be under pressure to do something means you are expected or pushed to do it. It is a common way to describe pressure from your boss, clients or the market.

In the news: companies are under pressure to cut costs

Example: Our sales team is under pressure to hit this quarter’s target before the Lunar New Year.

Common collocations:

• put pressure on someone: push someone to do something
• work well under pressure: do a good job even when stressed (common in job interviews)
• pressure to perform: pressure to get good results

10. fade (v.): to slowly become weaker and disappear

Pronunciation: /feɪd/

Fade originally describes colors, sounds or light slowly becoming weaker. In the news it is often used for effects, memories or worries that slowly disappear.

In the news: the rise in unemployment linked to new technology has faded after about two years

Example: My fear of speaking English faded after a month of one-on-one classes.

Common collocations:

• fade away: slowly disappear
• fade to zero: drop until nothing is left
• the effect fades: the impact gets weaker over time

11. Bonus phrase: in other words (to say it more simply)

In other words is used to say something again in a simpler or more direct way. It is a useful linking phrase for speaking, writing and presentations.

In the news: In other words, many AI-related layoffs may be waiting for the next recession.

Example: The meeting is moved to 9 a.m. In other words, we need to leave home earlier.

Similar expressions:

• that is (to say): used to explain what you just said more exactly
• to put it simply: used to explain something in an easy way
• what I mean is…: used to make your point clearer

Besides the 10 main words above, the passage has several other words worth noting down, especially if you are preparing for the TOEIC or reading business news.

All five patterns come from the passage. Once you learn them, you can use them directly in English presentations, emails and interview answers.

Pattern 1: A may + V…, but B could still + V… (A might…, but B could still…)

Original sentence: Artificial intelligence may change the job market more slowly than many people fear, but the change could still be large.

Structure: The first half admits a milder fact, and the second half uses but … could still to say that the impact still matters. Use it when you want to concede a point first and then make your main point; it works well in presentations and argumentative writing.

Try it: Studying abroad may be expensive, but it could still be a smart investment for your career.

Pattern 2: Looking at + N, S + V (judging from…, S…)

Original sentence: Looking at past technology changes, the economists found that job losses tend to stay limited…

Structure: A V-ing participle phrase at the start of the sentence shows what the subject based its judgment on. Note that the participle must share the subject of the main clause: here, it is the economists who are looking at past changes.

Try it: Looking at my TOEIC score, my manager suggested I join the overseas project.

Pattern 3: S + tend to + V + when… (S usually… when…)

Original sentence: Job losses tend to stay limited when the economy is healthy.

Structure: Tend to means "usually" or "are likely to". It is softer than always and is good for describing trends or habits; the when clause explains under what conditions this happens.

Try it: I tend to speak more slowly when I’m nervous in English meetings.

Pattern 4: S + be based on + N (S comes from / rests on…)

Original sentence: The estimate is based on a forecast that AI will eventually lift productivity by 15%.

Structure: Be based on shows what a conclusion, number or decision comes from. It is followed by a noun; to explain what that basis says, you can add a that clause, as the news does.

Try it: Our lesson plan is based on your current level and the goals you set in the first class.

Pattern 5: Even if + S + V, S + V (even if…, S still…)

Original sentence: Even if 9% of workers are displaced, he expects the unemployment rate to rise by less than one percentage point in any single year.

Structure: Even if introduces an imagined condition, and the main clause says what is still true in that case. Note the difference between even if and even though: even if is about a possibility, while even though is about a fact.

Try it: Even if you only have 30 minutes a day, you can still improve your listening with news podcasts.

Now that you have learned the words and grammar, let's see how they work in a real conversation. Situation: Amy and Ben are talking about the news on AI and jobs during their lunch break.

English Conversation

• Amy: Did you see the news? Goldman Sachs estimated that AI could displace up to 9% of workers.
• Ben: Yeah, I saw it. It sounds scary, but they said the change might be temporary.
• Amy: True. They also said layoffs usually speed up during a recession, not when the economy is healthy.
• Ben: That makes sense. When business is slow, companies are under pressure to cut costs.
• Amy: I’m a bit worried, because a lot of my work is pretty routine.
• Ben: Maybe you could use AI to boost your productivity instead of seeing it as a threat.
• Amy: Good idea. I’m also thinking of improving my English so I can move into an international role.
• Ben: Smart move. Skills like communication won’t fade in value anytime soon.

5 useful spoken expressions from the conversation

1. Did you see the news? The most natural way to start talking about current events.
2. It sounds scary, but… Acknowledge how the other person feels first, then offer a different angle.
3. That makes sense. A very common reply among native speakers; more conversational than I agree.
4. I’m a bit worried, because… Adding a bit softens the tone, which suits the workplace.
5. Smart move. A short way to praise someone’s decision; you can also say Good call.

To express yourself more precisely in meetings and emails, read A must for professionals! 6 techniques to communicate more effectively in English.

Now test how well you understood the passage. Try not to look back at the article; choose your answer and submit it to see the explanation.

The last step after reading is to express your own ideas in English. Here are three discussion questions suited to B1–B2 learners; they are also topics that may come up in English job interviews.

Speaking Question 1: Do you think AI will change your job in the next five years? How?

Model answer: Yes, I think so. Some routine parts of my job, such as writing reports and sorting data, will probably be done by AI. However, I believe my job will not disappear. Instead, I will spend more time talking to clients and making decisions.

Speaking Question 2: Which skills do you think will be hardest for AI to replace?

Model answer: In my opinion, communication and teamwork will be the hardest to replace. AI can give us information quickly, but building trust with colleagues and customers still needs a human touch. That is why I want to improve my English and my presentation skills.

Speaking Question 3: If your company announced layoffs, what would you do first?

Model answer: First, I would stay calm and find out which teams are affected. Then I would update my résumé and reach out to my professional network. I would also look at job openings in other countries, because my English skills give me more options.

If you want to improve your English through the news, try these four steps. Twenty minutes a day is enough.

Step 1 | Listen first, then read, and answer three questions

Without looking at any translation, listen once with the audio player at the top of the article, then read the English passage and try to answer: What happened? Who said it? Why does it matter? If you can answer these three questions, you have understood the main idea of the story.

Step 2 | Choose 5–10 words that matter to you

Don't try to memorize every new word at once. If you are preparing for English job interviews, start with productivity, be under pressure to and routine; if you follow economic news, start with recession, slowdown and layoff.

Step 3 | Read aloud and imitate two or three sentence patterns

Choose two or three complete sentences from the article and practice reading them aloud, for example Job losses tend to stay limited when the economy is healthy. or The estimate is based on a forecast. As you read, pay attention to pronunciation, and also practice the pauses and stress in each sentence.

Step 4 | Retell the news in your own English

Finally, without looking at the article, try explaining the news in three to five English sentences. For example:

Goldman Sachs says AI could displace up to 9% of workers. The bank does not expect a sudden wave of layoffs. Job losses usually speed up during a recession. In the past, the rise in unemployment faded after about two years. So the change may be large, but it may also be temporary.

Even with simple sentence patterns, you can gradually build your ability to express yourself in English.

Goldman Sachs' research shows that AI's impact on the job market is not just tech news; it also comes with plenty of useful workplace and economics English: displace, productivity, layoff, recession, slowdown, routine and be under pressure to.

These words are not just exam vocabulary. You may actually use them when you read international news, join English meetings, prepare to work overseas or discuss AI with international colleagues. The news also offers a point worth remembering: the jobs hit hardest in the past were mostly routine ones, while skills like communication and judgment do not lose their value easily. If you can understand this article, try answering in three to five English sentences: Do you think AI will change your job?

Ambitious Learner offers one-on-one online English lessons planned around your level, work needs and learning goals. If you enjoy learning English through the news, AI, economic news and workplace topics can also be brought into class so you can practice reading comprehension, speaking and English job interviews. If you are preparing for a working holiday in Australia or study in the Philippines, news like this also makes a good English warm-up before you go. Contact us through our official LINE account to ask about English lessons and trial classes.

• 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics Announced: Learn Inflation, Interest Rate and Boom and Bust: another economics story, with English for inflation, interest rates and the business cycle.
• What Does Burnout Mean? Learn 11 Workplace English Words from an Australian Survey: more workplace English to read next.
• A must for professionals! 6 techniques to communicate more effectively in English: communication tips for meetings, emails and working across countries.

• Fortune: AI could displace one in 11 workers, Goldman says, but the layoffs are likely waiting for a recession (Nick Lichtenberg, October 22, 2026)
• Investing.com: Goldman Sachs forecasts 9% of workers could face AI displacement (Garrett Cook, October 22, 2026)

Facts checked on October 24, 2026. All figures in this article are based on the two reports above; we did not have access to Goldman Sachs' original research note. Both reports note that AI assisted in their writing and that they were reviewed by human editors. The English reading passage, example sentences, dialogue and quiz in this article are original teaching content created by Ambitious Learner for learning purposes; they are not word-for-word translations of any news report.